Knowing the likelihood of winning before buying a lottery ticket is good practice. Considering the chances of success and the inherent value of the prize will allow bettors to weigh the risks and buy tickets accordingly. College admissions also can seem like a lottery. Students do everything they can to prepare and subsequently submit their application “ticket” and then anxiously wait to see if they are one of the lucky few who win the “acceptance” prize.
Behind the scenes, in admissions offices around the globe, far more is going on than numbered balls falling out of lottery machines. Still, for those waiting for the acceptance offers, the wait can feel like Bingo Night at their local community hall.
Like risk-takers around the globe, students applying to college should try to predict their chances of success before submitting their applications. After researching, creating long lists of possible colleges and subsequently shortlisting those to which they want to apply, students should try to assess the likelihood of their acceptance and group their universities accordingly. Although category names and percentage band ranges may vary, common groupings and percentage bands may include :
- Far Reach = 0% – 5% chance of gaining admission.
- Reach = 5% – 25% chance of gaining admission.
- Target = 25% – 75% chance of gaining admission.
- Likely/Safety = Greater than 75% chance of gaining admission.
Predicting admissions success, however, is neither an easy task nor an accurate science and students may find it difficult if they choose to undertake this task by themselves. With counselling support, however, in schools, community and online, students will find that help is never far away.
Chance Predictions, Likelihood Scores and Admissions Difficulty
Counselors, advisors as well as online predictive tools use a range of student data, school historical admissions records and university statistics to determine the student’s likelihood of acceptance.
Online admissions “calculators” such as what can be found in CollegeVine, use complex algorithms to transform far-reaching data points into simple likelihood scores. In contrast, school counselors may base their predictions on their understanding of the student, the university and historical school admissions records.
The data points used when predicting the likelihood of acceptance may include:
- Individual Demographics (gender, ethnicity, country of origin).
- Student grades and academic history.
- Individual GPA across Grades 9 -12.
- Acceptance rates for the university, school and like peers
- SAT/ACT (overall score as well as subsection scores).
- Rigour of coursework across Grades 9 – 12.
- Engagement in extension and advanced level classes including college-level courses.
- Number and types of honours, awards and distinctions.
- Involvement and level of engagement in extracurricular activities (Standard, Strong, Very Strong, Exceptional).
- Individual hooks and USPs.
- Institutional priorities.
A Word of Advice
In an ideal world, having all the colleges in a student’s application falling under the “safety” category would allow them to breathe easily but, unfortunately, the world of college admissions is not always ideal.
Some of the colleges for which students are excellent candidates may have extremely low admit rates and, therefore, no matter how well they prepare, how high they score, what activities they have led and what hooks they hold, their chances of admission will always be low.
If a student finds that all colleges to which they want to apply fall into the “Far Reach” category then they should do some serious self-reflection.
It is important also for students to realise that “Far Reach” colleges, are not necessarily better quality or better fitting than those colleges that are considered “Safety” schools. Schools that are considered “easier to get into” may have the luxury of both a high acceptance rate as well as perfectly matching a student’s profile.
If a student finds that all colleges to which they want to apply fall into the “Far Reach” category then they should do some serious self-reflection; either their profile does not match the requirements of the college or they are only applying to highly selective colleges with low acceptance rates and this could mean great disappointment at the end of the admissions season.
When students look at the final list of colleges to which they want to apply they should consider their chances of success and how much they value each university and then roll the dice with their eyes wide open.
